On Keynes, AI and techno optimism
Keynes was wrong about "solving the economic problem" but he was right about almost everything else. We should be even more optimistic today about AI than he was in 1930.
John Maynard Keynes wrote a famous essay on The Economic Opportunities for our Grandchildren. It is often quoted or referenced. Specifically his “prediction” that we would all be working a 15 hour week by now. Rereading this, three things strike me:
1. His incredible optimism. Remember, he was writing in 1930. Yet he sounds every bit as positive about the potential of technology as
’s more recent techno-optimist manifesto. Keynes’ essay is better written (sorry Marc!) but he comes from the same place. Despite the desperate state of the world at the time.2. He underestimates our appetite for consumption and convenience. His view is based on the assumption we will “solve the economic problem” and reach the limit of our desire for more goods and services. “Old Adam” has far more voracious appetites than he imagined. Apart from this, we have actually massively overshot even his high level of optimism. There is no reason why this cannot happen again in the next 100 years!
3. He talks extensively about the risks of the change. He is confident (maybe over confident) that we will solve many major problems in time. But he sees the transition as a major risk.
This is exactly how I feel about AI. The risk is in the change, not in the technology itself. The tech is just a tool.
Highly recommend reading the whole thing.
(Note: the link takes you to a collection of famous essays on economics. Keynes is the first, and it’s only 4 pages of the 42.)