Keynes and the techno-optimist manifesto
During WW2, Keynes said"Anything we can actually do, we can afford." Marc Andreessen's techno-optimist manifesto explains how technology grows our ability to "do" infinitely.
I am a massive believer that tech is a force for good in the world. These days, that view sometimes feels at odds with the rest of the world. So I was delighted to see the Techno-Optimist Manifesto from Marc Andreessen a couple of weeks ago.
It strikes me there is a close link between techno-optimism and the wartime broadcast from John Maynard Keynes that I shared in my last post.
“Anything we can actually do, we can afford”
John Maynard Keynes, How much does finance matter? 2 April 1942.
The context of Keynes' broadcast was a debate around our ability to rebuild our economy and avoid mass unemployment after the war. (Note: Victory was far from certain at the time of the broadcast. Churchill did not declare “the end of the beginning until 10 November 1942.)
Keynes argued that the constraint on reconstruction was not money but capability and capacity. Andreessen makes a convincing case that technology is the best lever we have to expand our capacity and capability.
These are profound observations at a macro level. So why is this interesting for an entrepreneur?
Notes:
Any tech business has good cause for optimism. There is infinite potential for tech to do good in the world and infinite potential for growth. Finding your place in that world is hard, but there is no lack of opportunity.
Demographics increase both the scope and the urgency of these opportunities. Ageing populations in the developed world. Huge numbers of talented younger people in emerging markets with limited scope to realise their potential.
Leverage. Technology is our most powerful lever in the world. If you want to maximise your impact, tech is the key.
Bias. The techno-optimist manifesto is utopian. It almost certainly includes statements that conflict with your view of the world. Don’t let your own bias stop you listening to smart people.
There is no such thing as free money. Government direction and steering limit the value of innovation. Take the money if it helps you. Don’t let government “priorities” or “missions” divert you from the innovation your customer actually needs.
Reading:
Marc Andreessen includes a long list of thinkers to read at the end of his original article. Dipping into this list will be an endless source of insight.
2851 Miles - transcript of a talk by Bill Gurley. Great rant about regulatory capture in the US. Same problem arises elsewhere, even if the mechanisms are different.
Questioning the entrepreneurial state - Karl Wennberg & Christian Sandstrom. This is a full academic book. A hard look at the real successes and failures of innovation policy.
Keep Going - Matt Rickard. The story of Katalin Kariko, winner of the Nobel prize for medicine through her work on mRNA. Academic institutions are not always the best way to identify the best new ideas.
Why innovation prizes fail - Anton Howes in Works In Progress. Prizes are another wheeze to encourage innovation. Turns out they are not very effective.
From a Casino Economy to a new Golden Age - Carlota Perez in Forbes. One of my favourite economists. Explains the historical trends of major disruptions. Shows why disruption creates the best opportunity to start a new business.