Is software eating itself?
Is AI the end of software as we know it? What new types of software, new business models and new companies will emerge?
I love this short and simple piece on the End of Software.
The anonymous author essentially argues that AI will make software free to create. This will have a dramatic impact on the software market.
There is an analogy here with media and other markets for content. Opening those markets in a way that allows everyone to create new styles and forms of content has completely rewritten the rules.
Extending this to software means complete reinvention. New types of software. Fresh organisations and business models. Change to everything we currently understand.
This is a good way of thinking about the impact of AI. Consider the explosion in new styles of video, audio and writing in recent years. Think of the business model of a TikTok or Instagram influencer compared to any kind of traditional media. Could the same thing happen to software?
I don’t think it's possible to draw a straight line from content to software. There are two reasons the analogy is not quite on the mark:
Software often needs to perform a very specific task. Zero cost coding allows for much more bespoke software. But each bit of code still needs to solve a defined problem.
Software legacy. Businesses and consumers will want software that works with what they have. If anything, lots more software will amplify the complexity of making everything work together. For content everything is additive, there is no legacy to deal with.
So what will happen? I find it easy to imagine a world where there is a market for 100x the amount of software we produce today. But what kind of software will that produce?
What happens to the business economics if the cost falls to near zero? What new business models and companies will emerge?
This is going to be fun.
Thanks for reading.